Hollywood is currently amidst taking a Stormbreaker to Conventional Wisdom. Several assumptions about audience’s viewing habits are set to be obliterated by the end of this month as films like Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, and Solo: A Star Wars Story defy all expectations.
Here are some of the types of Conventional Wisdom that are about to get tossed down a garbage chute:
- “If a film has a historic opening, that means it’s front-loaded and it will suffer a mighty drop in its second weekend because all of the eager fans will have already flooded theaters on opening weekend. A drop of 65-70% is therefore totally expected, and absolutely fine!“
- “A film like Deadpool 2 is going to crash and burn, because it’s coming out mere weeks after Infinity War and only one week before Solo. It’s going to get totally lost in the shuffle!”
- “Superhero fatigue!”
- “Long movies don’t make as much money as shorter movies because they can’t run as many times a day as shorter ones!”
- “Solo is going to suffer because they didn’t promote it until February and- besides- people are getting tired of Star Wars because…reasons. Something-Something The Last Jedi ruined everyone’s collective childhoods.”
Time to whip out the Stormbreaker…
Let’s start with Avengers: Infinity War, with the tallies now coming in for its second weekend.
The folks over at Deadline, after initially getting a little too giddy with a projection of $120M on Saturday, have revised their final estimate for the film’s second frame. They’re now reporting that Infinity War raked in $115.5M, which is still incredible. Why? Not only because it’s the second best second weekend ever (after The Force Awakens) but because that means the film only cooled an oh-so-mild 55% after setting the all-time worldwide opening weekend record last week. And it did so with a running time of 2:36!
To date, the film- which is rumored to have cost a staggering $320 million- has made $1.1 Billion in just ten days.
Then there’s Deadpool 2…
Between the film being released on May 18, positioned between the latest Avengers and Star Wars films, and a rash of negative stories hitting the web earlier this year claiming that it was testing poorly, there were many reasons to think that the film would arrive with a thud. Heck, if you think about it, the first film was a smash hit that no one saw coming, so you’d be right in assuming that lightning was unlikely to strike twice. After all, we’re talking about an R-rated film that centers on a character who’s more niche and doesn’t have over 50 years of fandom to pull from.
Well, not so fast!
Based on pre-sales and social media buzz, analysts are projecting an opening weekend for Deadpool 2 of $150M. That’s actually higher than the first Deadpool, which opened to a crazy $132M in 2016- a figure no one was expecting for a $69M movie about an obscure-ish character saddled with an R-rating and a February release date.
So much for people getting tired of superheroes.
Then there’s Solo: A Star Wars Story…
As we reported on Friday, the film is looking to have a colossal opening weekend a mere seven days after Deadpool 2 slices its way into theaters. The film is poised to open to $170M, and that’s a jaw-dropping figure. Going beyond what we discussed in Friday’s report, let’s put that number into perspective:
Earlier this year, Black Panther hit the market like a tidal wave. From incredible pre-sales, to fantastic reviews, and a box office run that continues to this day (!!!), BP is considered one of the great success stories in recent memory. Well, what if I told you that Solo: A Star Wars Story has outstripped Black Panther‘s in its first 24 hours of advanced ticket sales on May 4? That crazy little fact was reported by Fandango, and it’s a testament to the kind of opening weekend we can expect for Solo.
Based on all of this incoming data and analysis, it’s pretty clear that no one’s getting sick of superheroes or Star Wars stories anytime soon. And it also all proves that audiences are willing to go see several blockbusters in droves over the course of mere weeks.
What a time to be alive.